Debt crisis may hurt housing market
A stronger than expected housing market has helped propel growth in the Canadian economy this year, but economists say recent economic and market tumult could jeopardize momentum in the sector.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday that national housing starts rose to 205,100 units on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, 11.6 per cent higher than the 188,900 reported in the same month last year and up 4.3 per cent from the 196,600 recorded this June.
But the pickup, driven by strong construction on condos and apartment buildings in urban centres, is likely due to builders catching up to robust demand last year, rather than expectations of coming growth.
Home building activity has been increasing through the first seven months of 2011, but starts are still down 4.6 per cent from a year ago.
During the first half of last year, the market was rebounding from recession and buyers were on a tear, prompting an influx of demand and the need to build more units.
Housing starts tend to lag activity in the resale market, and economists believe the recent strong construction activity is the result of increased demand last year. But they doubt whether the pace can continue as the prospect of a double dip recession in the U.S. forces them to rethink the prospects for economic growth in Canada.
"While many economic indicators have pointed to much softer growth through the summer, Canadian housing starts is not one of them, still likely responding to a firm rebound in sales activity in the second half of 2010," said Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic.
Stock markets — although they rebounded sharply on Tuesday — have seen severe selloffs in recent days over fears about U.S. and European debt loads and the potential for a double-dip recession south of the border.
The Canadian economy is so closely linked to the U.S. that slower American growth translates into less demand for Canadian goods, and lower employment and income growth in Canada.
Those worries could soon sour the mood of real estate investors who may not want to bet on an improving economy by the time new builds go on the market.
Buyer sentiment is "vulnerable to recent market turmoil," as the large decline on stock markets has a negative effect on consumer wealth and confidence, making them less inclined to make big purchases, said CIBC economist Peter Buchanan.
Many observers believe the Bank of Canada may now keep its overnight rate — which affects variable mortgage rates tied to bank prime rates — at the current low one per cent until next spring. Fixed rate mortgages could also fall as bond markets react to government debt issues.